The advent of a new Morning…

Posted on May 12, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

Even the longest and darkest of night, ends with morning light. We are nearing the end of the 3rd Lockdown. Maybe, just maybe, even if the announcement of the lockdown was abrupt and sudden in line with what we have come to accept as the innate style of our Prime Minister, it may have helped India avoid what could have been a large scale devastation, as seen elsewhere in the World. Still waiting, but the statistics till date does project quite an encouraging outcome. Anyway, lockdown or not it is time when manufacturing and other operations will be and undoubtedly should be permitted to restart in a phased manner. How much more can we remain locked up? This is an extremely critical and delicate operation that will involve clear guidelines, operating principles and a very vigilant approach to health and safety.

Communication that is simple, easy to understand and practice becomes an essential tool in this phase. Unlike what we saw in these last 50 days, all stakeholders need to be explained the steps and procedure for operating productively while maintaining social distancing and essential practices. As also everyone in the Industry will be waiting in hope when the Finance Minister unwraps the Economic Stimulus announced by the Prime Minister in his 3rd address to the nation tonight. Astrology is always capable of predicting the future for anyone, whether it is a man, woman, country or the world itself, but astrologers can sometimes predict the future and events accurately and at times can even fail to predict it correctly. But I do firmly believe, as the Prime Minister reiterated, we can really turn the tide and change things – to make India great again. This is an opportunity for us to change things.

When we see a hole in a piece of silk, we are hardly surprised. It may be a shame but given the susceptibility of this fabric to wear and tear, it is inevitable. When we see a hole in a piece of steel, we are amazed. What on earth caused this?  Our psychological armour is sturdy. For all our inner sensitivity, it takes a lot to dent our external confidence – and it has been proved many times over. We are made of quite sturdy stuff. The experience of this pandemic will yet again just prove the point. I am quite certain that collectively we would see a resurgent India galloping ahead.

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The World at War?

Posted on May 4, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

This Covid-19 pandemic has gripped the entire World in a vicious vice, well almost the entire World but for one – where it all began. It has now been proven beyond  doubt, that if the alert had been sounded and strict measures enforced just a mere two weeks before it was eventually acted upon, we would all still be going about our lives as “old normal” instead of trying to adapt to a “new normal”. How the severity of the spread has been targeted or diverted more towards the developed part of the World, where despite the most advanced health care system, these Countries have grappled helplessly as the pandemic spread throughout, leaving in its wake an unpreceded toll.  All these years, ever since the last World War, nations have been foolishly spending enormous amounts of money, in stockpiling weapons & weapon systems including the lethal nuclear arsenals. We always tried to visualise a World, as how it would be, the day after a nuclear holocaust. Never, has anyone in their wildest dream imagined a parasitic holocaust. Biological warfare – yes, but it was always deemed to be restricted to a vicinity of geographical area and much less potent than a nuclear holocaust.  Who would have thought that devious minds enshrined in God knows what agenda, would work silently to create a situation where the entire World is brought down without lifting a single finger or ordering the troops out of their barracks. Introducing – “The Parasite” that would rule the World.

This World is at War!! People are inside the cover of their homes, not because of an imminent bomb raid, but to protect themselves against a far more viciously lethal enemy – an enemy which can’t be seen with naked eyes. Like a seasoned predator this particular enemy can wait patiently, lurking on some surface always ready to invade the body of an unsuspecting victim, the moment he lets his “mask” down. As leaders across the Universe are trying to take a sneak peek and test waters by announcing cautious lifting of Lockdowns, the coming few weeks and months will be the deciding factor on which way this situation is going to swing. While all this has been going on, there is but one Country which is preparing, to go shopping. Pick up the spoils of the war from the devastated battlefield, just like the old times where the victorious troops would be allowed to scavenge off the corpses, whatever precious things could be scavenged. Like a soap opera, the plots and sub-plots keep changing. The days, weeks, months ahead would be very interesting to see how this drama unfolds.

The truth is that human behaviour all over the World has made pandemics like this inevitable. We have shrunk the natural habitats, thereby giving more opportunities for viruses to combine and create lethal iterations. Then with the current socio-environmental set up in our cities, we give them more opportunities to spread, making the demarcation line very thin. Then we have provided ample opportunities. Just remember that, there’s always something to panic about, worry about or generally be in fear of. There always has been and there always will be. What’s upsetting or disturbing us now is, no more, or less serious than anything we have ever faced in the past. Over-react to it and it will get worse. Deal with it calmly and confidently and it will go away again – as ever. It is said that Good always prevails over the evil. This is what we have always been led to believe. We need to get faster at containment. We need to catch the virus at source. We know what it takes and fighting every pandemic since life on earth began – and no virus has ever beaten us yet. Historically whenever a pandemic virus has invaded causing destruction, all of human ingenuity has been brought to bear together to bring them down. It is only a matter of time…

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WHAT NOW….?

Posted on April 28, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

More than a month has passed since the Prime Minister announced a National Lockdown. What Now? Do we continue in this state of suspended animation and continue to dwell ensconced within our respective dwellings? It appears that the respective State Governments do not want to take a chance. A chance with what? It is time that the Government starts work on a broader plan so as to allow the life to go on. Fear of death by Covid-2019 virus would far outweigh the fear of death by starvation. In absence of any lifeline or monetary support each business is left to fend for itself. The roll call at some point will determine as to how many would be left standing.

In the meeting with Chief Ministers on Monday, the Prime Minister had rightly pointed out that importance needed to be given to the economy as well. It’s high time to walk the talk. There is no way that there is going to be an end game anytime soon as far as this particular virus is concerned. So when is it going to be the right time? Whatever, the diktats that may be given there is bound to be a massive fallout if this lockdown restrictions is not lifted and things allowed to resume post 03 May 2019. Yes this is definitely a risk that no State Government can avoid. People have become wiser and as adults, all the sane ones would follow the NEW Normal. We will forget what the Old Normal was. There was a logic to the first and even the second lockdown…but to nurture the thought of a Third…will most definitely be catastrophic and maybe even more devastating than the deaths which will be caused by the Covid-2019 virus.

This undoubtedly is a crisis situation. When you’re in the midst of a crisis, it can be hard to think past your short-term response. Lockdown is indeed that – a short-term response. But, the primary focus of leaders should be on the long term. After all, it is their job to lead people into the best possible future. But their diverse army of experts now marched out a phalanx of hypotheses to explain the consequences.

The People have been made adequately aware of the grave consequences this particular virus is empowered to inflict. Trust the people to handle the situation from hereon. Provide them with support and guidance. Locking them up in homes is definitely not a solution anymore. When it was right it was right, but now it is overdoing it. The virus isn’t going to go anytime soon, that is for sure. We just need to adapt to the NEW Normal. As Bill Joy, the brilliant thinker and engineer reminded us, “great medicines have saved lives, but it’s the simpler things, like clean water, proper hygiene and a cleaner way of life that have saved the most lives”. We are quickly learning what is causing our immune systems to react. Social distancing works but it’s a temporary answer. Lack of testing will haunt us but it will be solved over a period of time. Ventilators and hospitals will be better equipped and in a better state of readiness. We will see patterns on how to treat, or vaccinate, or both. In the meantime, there are ways to beat the virus and return to versions of a normal life. Masks hold the promise of protection at a minimum, and eradication at best. Just as there is a lot about the virus we don’t understand, there’s a lot about how it spreads we don’t understand. It can peter out and come back. It can weaken over time.

Work From Home may become a norm in times to come at least for some time, not as a forced one but as a way of life in the future. We can see the multiple benefits of such an arrangement. What can be done for the IT Industry, can be adapted to other verticals as well. But we just need to take this calculated risk. Some collateral damage is imminent, however comparatively it will be worth the chance. However, we can just wait and watch as the decision makers have to take that call..

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THE LONG WAIT….

Posted on April 21, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

“Light at the end of the tunnel”, somehow this idiom has always mystified me for most of my adult life, especially the latter half. It has always so happened that every time I “sensed” that I could see the light; it has always been harshly extinguished as an illusory figment of my imagination. During this waiting for the light to appear, I find that a far more devastating and vicious tunnel has enveloped my proverbial tunnel. Now what? It has all got quite entangled in a spirally mess. The tunnel keeps stretching by the passing of every single day. I might as well be penning “Prison Diaries…”. Since I happen to be trapped in a “Red” Zone, the gates are locked and the “Police” stand guard. Every passing day is becoming quite chaotic.

What if there is no drop in the rising incidence of cases? Does this “Lockdown” continue indefinitely. It is ironic, a rich Country like The US wants to do away with the lockdown and get on with the business of making money, while a poor Country like India, does not want to take that risk. Wonder what would be the decision of Warren Buffet in terms of Investing and placing the bet on –  India or US!!

For How Long? I am sure this question would be on the mind of every administrative & political Leadership across the World where Lockdown has been in place for quite sometime now. Eventually some decision would have to be taken, before it is too late. After all we certainly do not have a bottomless magic pot full of money, and whether we have the pot at all is also a worrisome factor. Ray of hope as always rests with the return of Vijay Mallya whose extradition appeal has been turned down. Maybe the UK courts have relented during this “difficult” time and have played angel. Maybe we can get the pot after all, question remains whether it is full or empty.

Well as long as we have the Pot…we can use it to store some spill over “oil” as there seems to be no more space to store the one time precious fluid around which the World once revolved. The American crude oil crashed below “zero”…does this mean that now America will have a free for all garage sale of Oil and throw in a burger to boot…OPEC’s opulence is at stake if the lockdown remains status quo. Even in times like this “Politics” and “Power” maintains centre stage as exhibited by the B&B of the Israel’s political set up. Benjamin Netanyahu & Benny Gantz have joined hands to rule a nation, where one half of the population never wanted the other to rule them.

Walt Disney has asked 100,000 of its employees to get out of its payroll and instead apply for Government support. A lot of Governments have taken it upon themselves to “provide” for. A lot of us in India are still waiting on a solution as all we have had so far are Government Orders asking all Companies to continue paying Salaries irrespective of the Head “Income from Sales” representing the biggest invention of the mathematical genius Aryabhata. Hope for the Light at the end of the tunnel continues…

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LOCKDOWN…Season 2…Coming Soon.

Posted on April 9, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

At the end of this ordeal whenever that might be, we may find it rather constraining as habits would have been considerably altered. Think of it as how the birds who have been caged since birth would react when eventually released. At the moment, this seems to be the only plausible solution that Leaders of every Country across the Globe can think off. LOCKDOWN…Shut the doors on the Virus. What if this tiny “virus” like a  seasoned hunter stalking and waiting patiently for humans to open their doors and come out!!

LOCKDOWN…Season 2 may start as soon as Season 1 gets over.

Is this the only solution? What do I know, I am just thinking aloud. Is this a solution at all. As children, many a times when we got scared we just used to shut our eyes and everything will be normal. The present situation and the solutions may just be something akin. For how long will we keep ourselves shut out from reality. Maybe, plans should be devised for a frontal attack, rather than playing hide and seek. We have over the years across the World, spent so much resources on R&D and in creating solutions to fight all kinds of warfare – conventional, biological, nuclear etc, and only to be defeated by a virus – which like an “insider” hitched a ride and spread across the Universe.

As the spread of the virus is fast gaining momentum so are the “forecasts” made by Astrologers and seers who had this epidemic in their radar and had foretold its outbreak and the fatal consequences. We have tried a couple of solutions over the last few weeks (results awaited), while our beloved neighbouring Country has as usual started threatening their medical fraternity with dire consequences with a gun held to their head (as reported in The Guardian), and even the all mighty Super Boss has started delivering direct threat of grave consequences in case we did not part with a portion of a particular drug which he feels is the ultimate “Brahma-astra”. We let him come visit and he went back with all our secrets.

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“LOCKDOWN” ITS IMPACT ON MSME SECTOR.

Posted on March 31, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

The entire World is presently in the grip of Covid-19 virus. It has been declared a pandemic, consequently fear bordering on paranoia has taken grip across the World. Consequently almost the entire World is in a state of Lockdown. The fear in the minds of people is so much that If you happen to venture out to purchase some daily essentials and happen to come across someone in the street, you are treated as if you are the manifestation of a walking virus in human form. However, historically looking back, the present condition is nowhere near the level of devastation that was inflicted by far more lethal epidemics in the past like the Spanish Flu or many such attacks by the “militant” virus community. Eventually in a few months time this Covid-19 threat would have been conquered successfully by our brilliant Scientists and eventually humankind will cope to co-exist as we have done with the mother of this present iteration, “Influenza”.

What is more of a concern is not the medical pandemic of Covid-19, but the economic pandemic that is going to spell a much more vicious and lethal impact. Talking about India, it would be a huge challenge for the Government to bring the economy back on track and once again set it back in motion. Almost 40% of the current economy is supported by the MSME Sector. In fact most of the migrant workers who have fled from Cities are in some form employed by the MSME Sector. Even considering the fact that all goes well and we re-open for business post 15 April 2020, it is going to be a very tough challenge to get things going before the beginning of July/August 2020. And God forbid, if the present state of limbo were to extend to say May 20 / June 20 it will most definitely be catastrophic.

As a MSME Business Owner, I certainly do not want the situation to come to a point where I have to “lay-off” people or be in no position to continue to pay salaries. However, so far apart from Office Orders there has been no concrete plans for recovery announced by the Government. The Government has only stipulated by way of series of office orders that “No employee” should be retrenched” or that “full Wages” need to be paid etc. But HOW? This is the big question that needs to be addressed. And the solution has to be given by the Government. Most of the Business owners in the MSME have very limited or absolutely no “cash reserve” unlike its more affluent and well established counterparts. Under the current circumstances, It is feared that MSMEs—the key pillar of the Indian economy and the second largest provider of jobs—will no longer enjoy the same status post COVID-19 once the Lockdown ends. The pandemic has posed an existential crisis for the MSMEs. What choice does a business owner have?

The Reserve Bank of India, in a recent announcement of three-month moratorium on payment of instalments of term loan outstanding, deferring of interest rate on working capital and also not considering the deferment for NPA is expected to benefit a lot of MSME borrowers. The RBI’s measures are estimated to inject Rs 374 crore liquidity in the economy. This has come in as a relief but there is a lot more that needs to be done. What the Government has to consider is that the MSME sector contributes significantly towards the GDP. If this sector were to be crippled the entire economy will indeed slip back by 21 years as announced by our Honourable Prime Minister.

It is time that the government announces and implements schemes to provide specific relief measures to the small businesses, which are amongst the worst hit. The need to working capital and cash flow lending both without any need for collateral, is more pronounced during these times than ever before. We completely understand that India unlike the other more affluent Countries may not be able to support the Industry financially by announcing direct aid packages. However, what can be very easily done is to provide “working Capital Loans” at a marginal Interest with a moratorium of 6 months to 12 months.

It is time that the Government and intelligentsia domain experts and stakeholders from banking, financial services, think tanks, policymakers, industry, chartered accountants, consultants and economists get down to the task of charting out a specific plan to resuscitate the MSME, rather than allow it to die of asphyxiation. Like the dilemma of the Prince of Denmark in Shakespeare’s play, the question is not if the Lockdown ends or gets extended, the support and firm hand-holding by the Government would be a mandatory requirement to pull the economy out of this quagmire.

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Resentments & Grudges.

Posted on February 20, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

Resentments are the blocks that hold us back from loving others and ourselves. Resentments do not punish the other person; they punish us. They become barriers to feeling good and enjoying life. They prevent us from being in harmony with the world. Resentments are hardened chunks of anger. They loosen up and dissolve with forgiveness and letting go.

Letting go of resentments does not mean we allow the other person to do anything to us that he or she wants. It means we accept what happened in the past, and we set boundaries for the future. We can let go of resentments and still have boundaries.

We try to see the good in the person or the good that ultimately evolved from whatever incident we feel resentful about. We try to see our part. Then we put the incident to rest.

Praying for those we resent helps. Asking God to take our resentments from us helps too.

What better way to begin a New Year than by cleaning the slate of the past, and entering this one free of resentments.

God, help me become ready to let go of my resentments. Bring any resentment that is hidden within me, and blocking me, to the surface. Show me what I need to do to take care of my self by letting go of resentments, and then help me do that.

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Taking care of our senior citizens.

Posted on February 19, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

What other developed Countries are already experiencing will sooner than later be applicable for India as well. As a nation we need to focus on capacity building at the grassroot level in order to use technology to successfully address the needs of our ageing population. Growing old is as natural a phenomenon as being born – a fact that we must all gracefully accept. However, it can become an issue in the absence of proper care, love and support from family. Thanks to the advancement of medical science, life expectancy is expected to increase further to 75+ over the next few decades.

The government in 2017 had announced that it will come up with a new programme under which NGOs will take care of senior citizens, who are living alone, at their homes, besides bringing in a law to provide day care facility. There are about 100 million senior citizens in the country based on 2011 census. The current senior citizen population is expected to more than double to 300 million to constitute 20 per cent of the population in the next three decades. With a rapidly growing senior citizens, India is faced with the mammoth task of providing basic senior-friendly urban infrastructure.

Organised Caregiver Communities

These days most aged people are left alone at home, confined to solitude with minimal care and support, while their adult children are out at work. According to a study, 64 per cent of senior citizens living in an urban setup fall prey to loneliness and depression. The loss of physical independence along with mental and societal insecurities due to retirement or death of a partner can take a toll on the elderly as well.

Caregiver communities: will offer independent living for senior citizens through senior-friendly infrastructure and trained personnel for elder care. The care-givers help with daily chores, medication and movement so as to make the seniors feel secured, empowered and cared for and can lead a stress-free life in a amicable social environment.

Home Care

Most senior citizens do not want to leave the comfort of their home even when faced with chronic ailments. Under such circumstances home-based care becomes crucial. There is a need to offer specially trained nursing and support assistance to the elderly at home. These professionals will be specially trained to handle various physical and mental ailments. They also assist in non-clinical care such as housekeeping, daily activity support, counselling and organising social group interactions.

Use of Technology

The Government has also started a program under the Rashtriya Vayoshri Yojana (RVY) launched in March 2017, where the government plans to reach out to beneficiaries in three years through NGO’s. The use of wearables and sensors for detection and recording of patient vitals, automated logging systems, real-time data updates, etc. are some ways in which technology is transforming the way we look at healthcare. Use of modern technology like for instance a health app can not only accurately record, analyse and update patient vitals such as blood pressure or heart rate but also relay any inconsistencies immediately.

Caregiving has to rapidly evolve. The notion of professional homecare is growing in India with technology-based innovation. As a nation we need to focus on capacity building at the systemic level in order to use technology to successfully address the needs of our senior citizens as it is both our duty and responsibility.

Astute Outsourcing Services Pvt. Ltd. under the aegis of Chaque Jour Aashirwad Social Welfare Trust plans to start its “Elder Care” program soon.

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Occult & Mysticism.

Posted on February 19, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

Astrology, Palmistry, Numerology, Tarot, and a whole lot of other occult sciences are used to “predict” the future. The quest to know what lies ahead is more prevalent now than ever. Even though it has always existed in all cultures and across continents, the yearning to know what lies ahead is gaining momentum – much more than ever. Consequently it has been a catalyst in creating a vocational Industry in itself. The soothsayers might have never had the going so good. The more your yearn to know about what lies ahead, the more you make the essence of living life a pain. The beauty of life is in living each day as it happens, and not by trying to stay ahead. This can never be done as it is absolutely impossible to “predict” to the point as to what is going to happen. Anyway even if it is predicted, there is no way it will happen without making the requisite effort.

The key to success now is to maintain focus, keep a sense reality and, most importantly, plan all of your moves carefully and strategically.

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MSME’s : Wither to?

Posted on February 18, 2020 by Capt. Shaji Kumar

India houses more than 63 million MSME’s contributing 29 percent of the GDP, 45 percent of Industrial Production, providing employment to millions of Indians. However, it has always been beset by inherent issues which unfortunately has largely remained unattended to. Despite a dedicated Ministry setup by the Government there still remains a huge gap between the cup and the lip. The most unique challenge that MSME’s endure is access to low cost capital. This despite having dedicated channels like SIDBI in existence. Authenticated reports estimates that the credit gap for MSME’s stand at approximately INR 15 lakh crore. And with the advent of technological advances, initiatives like GST and the formalization of the economy, the back of this sector is already at a capacity stretch. Only 20 percent of the MSME’s are being financed by the formal banking system, that leaves the rest 80 percent to scrounge for “finances” from the informal sector at atrocious rates of interest. This lack of adequate access to timely and affordable credit continues to remain one of the sector’s biggest challenges, restricting its growth and future potential. There has been some initiatives led by the Government like the 59-minute loan, co-organisation between banks and NBFC’s for affordable credit, however despite these initiatives being laudable at a macro level, it still leave a huge gap at the micro level, as it does not translate into anything.

 

The dream of growth and pushing the GDP to get to 5 trillion, with a budding young India and initiatives like start-up India, pushing the young Indians to explore avenues of entrepreneurship & self-employment, the Government needs to step up its act and ensure that the hand holding translates to grass root level. The hand holding has to be more visible. There is no other way around the crisis of employment, and it is only logical to push entrepreneurship and self-employment. The large businesses may only contribute just as much to this 5 trillion target, than the 30 percent sector which can be pushed to clamour and contribute as much as possible – and it can. This is the only way that a young vibrant India having 70 percent of able bodied under thirty raring to go population can take us to the finish line.

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